A Plan

Anthony Shadid's thoughtful Washington Post Report from Beirut talks about a strategic basis for Israel's attacks on Lebanon. A plausible idea is that they are trying to drive a wedge between Hisbollah and the rest of the Lebanese population.
The radical Shiite movement Hezbollah and its leader, Hasan Nasrallah, hold an effective veto in Lebanese politics, and the group's military prowess has heartened its supporters at home and abroad in the Arab world. But that same force of arms has begun to endanger Hezbollah's long-term standing in a country where critics accuse it of dragging Lebanon into an unwinnable conflict the government neither chose nor wants to fight.

If it doesn't work, a plausible result is a unified Shiite axis running through Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran, all cooperating against Israel.

The fact that Israeli warplanes can flyby the Syrian Presidential Palace with apparent impunity demonstrates how weak the Arab states remain, however.

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